Rupee Depreciation v/s Dollar appreciation.

The recent uptrend in the value of dollar with respect to rupee and other currencies can be attributed to few factors.

1- G-7 mechanisms.

2- Crude and Dollar relationship.

3- Gold and Dollar relationship.

4- Indian Context.

G-7 mechanisms- The G-7 nations own huge assets and have large exposures in dollar holdings, so a fall in the value of dollar results in the decline of their wealth and a rise in the value of the assets will result in boosting their dollar holdings wealth. The current uptrend is not purely bases on the Market mechanisms but based on the G-7 Mechanisms.

2- Crude and Dollar relationship- Crude and Dollar enjoy an inverse elationship which means that a consistent rise in price of crude will result in decline in the value and demand for dollars and vice versa. This is due to the fact that Crude is pegged to dollars, Crude can be traded only in dollars, before purchasing crude nation need to pep up their dollar reserves to make crude transactions. when the price of crude tends to be very high , Nations try to resort to using crude very conservatively and purchase less of crude , in this scenario the demand for dollars decrease and on the other hand when the crude tumbles nations try to accumulate their dollar reserves to purchase more of crude, this results in the surge in the value of Dollar.

3- Gold and Dollar- Financial crisis has resulted in the shifting the focus from the capital markets to the commodities market, Among the commodities gold iss the safest bet, Gold too is traded in dollars, People try to accumulate the gold reserves for which they buy or demand lot of dollars which actually results in a surge in the value of dollar.

4- Indian Context- It is a fact that whenever RBI purchases dollar against rupee the value of dollar rises against the rupee and when RBI tries to sell the Dollars against Rupee the Dollar declines against the Rupee. RBI in the recent years had always accumulated Dollar reserves but never sold its dollar reserve holdings. The Forex reserves of India as on 7th Nov-08 stands at $244,059 Million.

The Conservative stands of RBI has resulted in its not disposing of the dollar reserves. If the Rupee continues to get the beating gainst the dollars, RBI might end up resorting to some stringent measures to curb the Dollar Domination against the Rupee.

So Let's wait for the moves of the RBI.