Tuesday, September 30, 2008

The Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis.


The sub-Prime mortgage crisis is considered to be the root cause for the financial meltdown in the U.S. Economy.


What Actually is Sub- Prime Mortgage Crisis?

The creditworthiness of the consumer is taken as a base to determine whether he falls in the Prime category or the subprime category.

Prime Category refers to people who have a good creditworthiness, They are offered loans at a lower rate of interest when compared to that of the Sub prime category. Sub Prime refers to people with not a good creditworthiness, They are charged a higher rate of interest when compared to that of the Prime Category.


The advantages to the banks when catering to a subprime category customer is that they charge a higher rate of interest due to the risk involved. The risk involved is the possibility of a delay in making the payments or possibility of non-repayment of the amount. In order to mitigate the risk they resort to mortgaging property.


The Housing Bubble- It started of in the Year 2002, when the property value started to increase rapidly and the demand for homes skyrocketed. People ended up making a business out of this phenomenon by mortgaging their property and buying a house, holding it for few days and then selling it to a prospective customer at a premium.


Evolution of C.D.O. - The federal government evolved the C.D.O.- Collateral Debt Obligation- A debt instrument which can be traded in the markets. Ex- X Co. lent a loan of say $2 Million repayable in 20 Years and if it feels that the customer is not likely to repay, it will sell the same to a financial institution for say $1.5 Million. The advantage for X Co. is that it gets back $1.5 Million immediately( Had it not traded CDO- It might or might not have got back the amount in a stipulated period say- 20 Yrs). The Advantage to the Finance Company is the $.5 Million(Difference between 2 Million and 1.5 Million) and the monthly interest is paid by the customer to the financial institution.


The problem started when the Housing Bubble reached its saturation point. A point at which almost everyone had an own house, from this point the prices started to take a downtrend, downtrend was very huge with almost 60-70 % fall in the prices of Houses. People who were mainly making a business of the boom in housing prices started to feel the pinch, Their repayment capacity along with the Value of the houses had gone for a toss forcing them to file for banktruptcy.

The Mortgage banks had to face with even more problems in the form of non payment of interest, non payment of Principal , Foreclosures and a steep decline in the prices of property had resulted in the potential of earning a very meagre amount out of the sale of a house.


Ex- Say A had pledged a House Property worth 1 Million and took a loan of say 800,000. In the event of repayment ,Bank disposes of the House property which was pledged earlier and due to the steep decline in house prices, Property which was worth a $Million might have fetched the bank only $200,000 thus resulting in a netloss of $600,000 and the interest which A had failed to pay which actually resulted in forcing the bank to dispose A's Asset.


Finally, One can Get a House in the U.S at a price of an Airticket!!!!!! Sounds strange but its true, The Housing bubble burst had hit the U.S. Homes such badly!


Moreover, The concept of C.D.O. had actually resulted in making huge profits few years back, but due to the down trend Many Mortgage banks which had resorted to sanctioning loans on a very large scale had to bear the brunt.


The Banks which were Struck by the Housing Bubble Burst turbulence are-

1.Bear Staines

2.Washington Mutual

3.Wachovia.

4.Fanni Mae.

5. Freddie Mac.

6. Lehmann Brothers.

7.Merill Lynch.

8. AIG - American International Group.

8. Citi Bank ( To a great extent- they managed to survive for this quarter).


Lehmann Brothers which was constantly present in the fortune 500 Companies looks like ended up in Misfortune 500 Companies:-)




Best time to Invest in The US Homes, Ain't it?


I came across an article recently which stated that -" Now u get homes for as low as 1500$ in the US" owing to the Housing Bubble! Remember the prices will recover phenomenally few days after the bail out plan is implemented succesfully and the aftermath of the financial crisis cools down.

In India, Prices have skyrocketed in the past few years, People have already invested upto crores on a single independent villa, then why not think out of the box and invest the same amount which is enought to earn u not a villa but a palatial palace like structures in the US , particularly in the present circumstances? The financial crisis is just an opportunity in disguise for those who are planning to invest, especially from the long term perspective.

The houses being auctioned are being disposed off for a price which everybody could have only dreamt of few years back! Believe me its affordable to the fullest by majority of the population.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Time to start accumulating Stocks!!!!!!!

It is a preconceived notion that one shoud stay away from crashing markets, but i feel its the best time to start accumulating stocks in meagre quantities regularly during the falls and stay invested in the long run.
The mantra of Economics is that- Everything in this world goes through a cycle- ups and downs, when d bottom has reached its time to start moving up and vice versa.

Today's market has got many attractive picks namely-
Rajesh Expo @ 27
Karuturi networks limited@ 16.70
Hdil @ 166
Suzlon @ 153
Jindal Steel and power@ 1250
Jp Associates @ 105
JPHydro @ 40
omaxe@ 95
Unitec@ 98
These are few of the many stocks which seemed to be attractive!
Remember- Ours is a fundamentally strong Market, Volatility is just a temporary phenomenon- a blessing in disguise for new investments. Believe in urself, stay invested!

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Crude Tumbles.....

After a long time crude prices seemed to cool down after rallying to about 148$ , Crude tumbled to around 100 $. Nymex crude was trading at around 100$ and brent crude was trading at aroun 98$ a barrell.

As predicted if the crude drops to around 70$ a barrell, the global stock markets might fight its way out of the volatility and end up consolidating as crude oil prices were one of the reasons for the worldwide increase in inflation and cause of volatility.